• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
Ci Logo

Climate Interactive

  • About
    • About
    • Who We Are
    • Partners & Funders
    • Work With Us
    • Donate
  • Our Work
    • Simulators & Science
      • En-ROADS
      • C-ROADS
      • Research & Insights
    • Experiences
      • En-ROADS Climate Workshop
      • Climate Action Simulation Game
      • World Climate Simulation Game
      • En-ROADS Guided Assignment
    • En-ROADS Ambassador Program
      • About the Program
      • Become an Ambassador
      • Meet our Ambassadors
    • Other Tools & Programs
      • The Climate Leader
      • Multisolving
      • Food Systems
      • Systems Thinking
  • Get Involved
    • Trainings
      • En-ROADS Training
      • En-ROADS Ambassador Program
      • The Climate Leader
    • Join an Event
      • Webinar & Event Schedule
      • Contact an Ambassador
      • Run an Event Yourself
  • Multimedia
    • Blog
    • Videos
    • Press
  • Support
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Community Forums
    • Contact Us
  • About Us
  • Staff
  • Partners & Funders
  • Work With Us
  • Donate
  • Simulators & Science
    • En-ROADS
    • C-ROADS
    • Research & Insights
  • Experiences
    • En-ROADS Climate Workshop
    • Climate Action Simulation game
    • World Climate Simulation game
    • En-ROADS Guided Assignment
    • Join an Event
  • Ambassador Program
    • About the Program
    • Become an Ambassador
    • Meet our Ambassadors
  • Other Programs
    • Multisolving
    • Systems Thinking
    • Climate Analysis
    • Food Systems
  • Blog
  • Videos
  • Press
  • Trainings
    • En-ROADS Training
    • En-ROADS Ambassador Program
    • The Climate Leader
  • Events
    • Event & Webinar Schedule
    • Contact an Ambassador
    • Run an Event Yourself
    • Register Your Event
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Community Forums
  • Contact Us

Cheap Natural Gas Has the Potential to Weaken a Critical Feedback Loop Needed for the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

January 5, 2012 By Elizabeth Sawin

Early adoption of renewable energy helps jump start the transition to a low-carbon economy via a reinforcing feedback loop. Anything that diminishes early adoption of renewable energy – including competition from ultra-cheap fossil fuels –  slows down this  transition.

Recent reports that unusually low natural gas prices in the US may be weakening homeowner’s enthusiasm for investing in solar panels are  a cause for concern, especially considering a dynamic we have begun exploring with En-ROADS (our interactive scenario-testing tool that explores the dynamics of creating a low-carbon economy). In En-ROADS, just as described in the latest news accounts, when there is a lot of cheap gas around the growth in renewables tends to be slower.

On the surface, these reports seem to be telling the tale of a one-time event: cheaper gas this year means fewer new solar installations this year. That’s true, but it’s not the whole story.

Consider the  virtuous cycle shown in the diagram above: with more units of solar  installed there is more learning by doing. Costs  of solar fall, leading to greater attractiveness of solar and even more units of solar installed, and so on.

But here’s the glitch – if the falling cost of natural gas makes  the attractiveness of solar decline, then the early installations that launch the virtuous cycle falter, and the whole reinforcing process can lose momentum.

The impact of cheap gas is NOT  just a smaller number of new installations this year; it’s a future loss in the speed at which solar becomes more affordable. Think of money not invested in a retirement account; it’s not just that the balance is lower, but that a lower balance earns interest more slowly.

There is growing awareness about the downsides of natural gas, starting with the impacts of its extraction. Like most of our energy options, natural gas comes with side-effects. Some are measured in contaminated groundwater. Others are  even more subtle, woven into economic feedback lops, and resulting in the weakening of a possibility, just when we need it most.

As systems thinkers, this is a lesson we see again and again. From sneakers made in sweatshops to chemical-laced agricultural products, if a society prioritizes the inexpensive above all else, eventually, consequences begin to pile up. If we orient towards what we really want, not just towards what is cheapest now, and if we look carefully at the structure of the systems we live within, we can design smart policies that prioritize the our real goals, from adequate access to energy to a sustainable future for our children.

Primary Sidebar

Blog

Categories

  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Business Focus
  • C-ROADS
  • En-ROADS
  • Equity
  • Examples of Multisolving
  • Featured
  • Food Systems
  • Event Type
  • Multisolving
  • Multisolving in Action
  • Multisolving Leaders
  • The Climate Action Simulation game
  • The En-ROADS Guided Assignment
  • Asia & Middle East
  • Africa
  • Uncategorized
  • World Climate Simulation

Footer

  • Explore
    • Home
    • Updates
    • Our Work
  • Connect
    • Support
    • Contact
    • FAQ
  • Get Involved
    • Training Program
    • Join an Event
    • Donate
Social Media
FacebookLinkedInTwitterYouTube

    Get Updates

    I accept having my information collected.* Privacy Policy.

    ⟶

    • Languages
    • Español
    • Português
    • Français
    • Deutsch
    Climate Interactive
    • © 2022 Climate Interactive
    • Privacy Policy