Prosperity Post-Fossil Fuels: Insights from the Salzburg Global Policy Dialogue on Just Energy Transitions

By Ellie Johnston
July 9, 2025

What does a just energy transition actually look like for countries that produce oil and gas?

I had the opportunity to explore this question last week at the 2025 Policy Dialogue on Just Energy Transitions in Salzburg—an energizing and thoughtful gathering of policymakers, researchers, and advocates from around the world.

Some of the key takeaways from this critical dialogue included:

• Declining global oil demand is increasingly baked into energy outlooks from a range of organizations. Policies like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the rapid rise of EV sales in China are signs that major consumers are moving away from oil dependence. This is evidenced in the baseline scenario of our En-ROADS Climate Simulator as well. And, with additional climate action, the decline comes sooner and steeper.

• Oil producers face economic risks—and will need to respond proactively. For exporters, drops in oil demand can have rippling consequences. Nigeria, for example, saw severe economic shocks and food price inflation at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic due to the collapse in oil demand and prices (80% of the country’s exports, WB). Going forward, deliberate planning and diversification in exports to bring in revenue is key.

• There are already examples of progress—though export incentives remain strong. Many oil-producing countries are already taking steps to move away from domestic fossil fuels dependence—Brazil generated 80% of its power from wind, solar, and hydro in 2023 (IEA)—however, there is little motivation to limit fossil fuel exports. The sense is that reductions in exports will likely come from declining demand from importers, rather than domestic policy.

• Importing countries have a critical role to play in supporting a just energy transition. As drivers of demand, major importers can help shape more just outcomes. Ideas included long-term purchase agreements and bilateral partnerships that could enable a managed decline in fossil fuel production, alongside investments in diversification and development.

• We need better tools and narratives to support implementation. In a small group, we surfaced gaps in dominant narratives—like the idea that “oil is essential for development.” This opened up the opportunity to imagine new scenarios and modeling tools that could better test and communicate alternative pathways: ones that support economic development and climate goals. An area I think we can help!

I’m grateful to have learned from the participants representing countries like Nigeria, Brazil, Canada, Malaysia, Trinidad & Tobago, Saudi Arabia, and Namibia—each bringing crucial perspectives to the table.

Huge thanks to our conveners: Salzburg Global, Climate Strategies, Stanley Center for Peace and Security, and Windward Fund.

Interested in learning more about how Climate Interactive’s work can support an equitable energy transition?