• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
Ci Logo

Climate Interactive

  • About
    • About
    • Who We Are
    • Partners & Funders
    • Work With Us
    • Donate
  • Our Work
    • Simulators & Science
      • En-ROADS
      • C-ROADS
      • Research & Insights
    • Experiences
      • En-ROADS Climate Workshop
      • Climate Action Simulation Game
      • World Climate Simulation Game
      • En-ROADS Guided Assignment
    • En-ROADS Ambassador Program
      • About the Program
      • Become an Ambassador
      • Meet our Ambassadors
    • Other Tools & Programs
      • The Climate Leader
      • Multisolving
      • Food Systems
      • Systems Thinking
  • Get Involved
    • Trainings
      • En-ROADS Training
      • En-ROADS Ambassador Program
      • The Climate Leader
    • Join an Event
      • Webinar & Event Schedule
      • Contact an Ambassador
      • Run an Event Yourself
  • Multimedia
    • Blog
    • Videos
    • Press
  • Support
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Community Forums
    • Contact Us
  • About Us
  • Staff
  • Partners & Funders
  • Work With Us
  • Donate
  • Simulators & Science
    • En-ROADS
    • C-ROADS
    • Research & Insights
  • Experiences
    • En-ROADS Climate Workshop
    • Climate Action Simulation game
    • World Climate Simulation game
    • En-ROADS Guided Assignment
    • Join an Event
  • Ambassador Program
    • About the Program
    • Become an Ambassador
    • Meet our Ambassadors
  • Other Programs
    • Multisolving
    • Systems Thinking
    • Climate Analysis
    • Food Systems
  • Blog
  • Videos
  • Press
  • Trainings
    • En-ROADS Training
    • En-ROADS Ambassador Program
    • The Climate Leader
  • Events
    • Event & Webinar Schedule
    • Contact an Ambassador
    • Run an Event Yourself
    • Register Your Event
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Community Forums
  • Contact Us

Building Confidence in C-ROADS

January 1, 2009 By Andrew Jones

c-roads-co2-comparisonHow does one build confidence in a system dynamics simulation like C-ROADS? Above you can see results from one important test that Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems did. 

Here’s what he did:

From the published papers and online data, we made a graph of the “CO2 in the atmosphere” results from historical data and from forecasts of two other highly-disaggregated models — MAGICC, BERN, and ISAM — when fed by three widely-divergent greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios (higher emissions, A1FI, medium emissions, B1, and lower emissions, WRE). Those results are shown above in purple.

Then we fed the same three emissions scenarios (A1FI, B1, and WRE) into C-ROADS and observed the results for CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.  Does the carbon cycle behave similarly to the other simulations? How much did we sacrifice in accuracy when we simplified the C cycle in order to make the sim run fast and be transparent?

The answer is in blue. C-ROADS’ results are consistent with those of the highly disaggregated models.

Note: Socolow and Lam make a good argument for simulation approaches such as this (decision-maker-oriented sims) here:  Socolow, R.H. and S.H. Lam.  2007. Good Enough Tools for Global Warming Policy Making Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007) 365, 897–934.

Primary Sidebar

Blog

Categories

  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Business Focus
  • C-ROADS
  • En-ROADS
  • Equity
  • Examples of Multisolving
  • Featured
  • Food Systems
  • Media coverage
  • Multisolving
  • Multisolving in Action
  • Multisolving Leaders
  • Policy workshops and games
  • Project news
  • Systems Thinking Insights
  • Team & Community
  • Uncategorized
  • World Climate Simulation

Footer

  • Explore
    • Home
    • Updates
    • Our Work
  • Connect
    • Support
    • Contact
    • FAQ
  • Get Involved
    • Training Program
    • Join an Event
    • Donate
Social Media
FacebookLinkedInTwitterYouTube

    Get Updates

    I accept having my information collected.* Privacy Policy.

    ⟶

    • Languages
    • Español
    • Português
    • Français
    • Deutsch
    Climate Interactive
    • © 2022 Climate Interactive
    • Privacy Policy