By Andrew Jones, Ellie Johnston, John Sterman, Elizabeth Sawin, Lori Siegel, Jennifer Haskell, and Phil Rice
Countries that submitted climate mitigation pledges for the Paris Agreement: 187
Countries in the UN climate convention: 196
The expected temperature change in 2100 if no action is taken: 4.5°C
If Paris pledges are fully implemented and no further progress is made: 3.5°C
The Paris Agreement goals: 1.5°C – 2°C
Approximate meters of long-term committed sea level rise avoided with implementation of the pledges in the Paris Agreement: 1
Billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions avoided between 2015 and 2030 if the Paris pledges are fully implemented: 113
Avoided between 2015 and 2100 if the Paris pledges are implemented and there is no further progress post 2030: 3,100
Avoided emissions required to limit warming to 2°C: 7,040
To 1.5°C: 7,610
Annual percentage emissions reduction rate 2030-2050 required to limit warming to 2.0°C if countries implement Paris pledges now and improve upon them in 2020: 3.5
Reduction rate required if countries wait until 2030 to make improvements: 4.8
Reduction rate achieved 1978-1988 in France and Belgium after the oil crisis: 3.7
For Brazil, percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2030, if its Paris pledge is fully implemented: 40
For EU: 40
For US: 14
U.S. 1990 per capita greenhouse gas emissions in tons per person per year: 24
In 2030, if the US pledge is implemented: 15
China’s, in 1990: 4
In 2030, if the China pledge is fully implemented: 12
Percent reduction in expected warming in 2100 compared to business as usual delivered by China’s Paris pledge alone: 37
Delivered by U.S. pledge alone: 17
Percent of cumulative global greenhouse gases 1870-2015 emitted by the U.S.: 18
Percent emitted by China: 13
Percent of the avoided temperature impact from the Paris Agreement that comes from countries engaged in “multisolving,” that is, emphasizing co-benefits such as health and jobs: 60
Number of citizens of Tuvalu per delegate in Paris: 243
Number for India: 7,000,000
Sources and notes for the numbers: https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/paris-agreement-by-the-numbers-sources-and-notes
Press inquiries:
Andrew Jones, apjones-at-climateinteractive.org
Ellie Johnston, ejohnston-at-climateinteractive.org, +1 336 202 8907.
John Sterman, MIT Sloan, jsterman-at-mit.edu, +1 339-223-0576
Climate Interactive is a not for profit organization based in the United States that creates tools, leads workshops, and runs analysis to help people see what works to address climate change and interconnected challenges.
Thanks for all these figures !
– W.r.t “avoided emissions”, when you mention “billions of tons” : could you please clarify if you mean GtCO2Eq or GtCEq ? (As you probably know, there is a ratio of 11/3 between these 2 units.)
– When you mention “Percent reduction in expected warming”, could you clarify if you consider Kelvin or Celsius scales ? (As you probably know, temperature is not an extensive property ! As a result, figures in percentage may be misleading ! More details on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intensive_and_extensive_properties )
Climateinteractive.org appears to me as a valuable web resource. I would be glad to help improve it !
– We’re using GTCO2eq
– It is a percent reduction in the expected warming measured in Celsius
Glad you find it valuable!