Bridging the Gap: Quantifying the Link Between Fossil Fuel Extraction and Deforestation

By Khaled Gaafar
June 17, 2026

Efforts to increase forest conservation and promote industrial decarbonization often operate in two distinct silos. However, fossil fuel extraction in forested areas lies at the intersection of these two conversations.

Although global annual fossil fuel emissions (~31 Gigatons CO₂ eq./year) continue to dwarf those from land-use change (~5.8 Gigatons CO₂ eq./year)¹ according to data from Global Carbon Budget (Friedlingstein et al., 2025), millions of hectares of tropical forest, a crucial carbon sink, are under threat due to fossil fuel exploration projects in the Amazon, Congo, and Southeast Asian regions (Earth Insight, 2025).

Climate Interactive developed the Fossil fuel Extraction in Biomass-rich Areas Calculator (FEBAC) tool in partnership with Earth Insight to close an important analytical gap in the context of fossil fuel extraction. Firstly, it estimates potential carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel extraction activities in forested areas worldwide, covering emissions from the extraction, transport, and combustion of fossil fuels. Secondly, it estimates the deforestation emissions associated with the extraction process, accounting for biomass and soil carbon release.

FEBAC leverages open-source, country-specific datasets to produce realistic emissions estimates. Users can also customize the tool with their own data.

FEBAC in action: Case studies

We have used FEBAC to analyze 14 regional blocks of fossil fuel reserves, with the help of Earth Insight, to explore the relative magnitude of carbon emissions from fossil fuel extraction and associated deforestation. The case studies covered 10 countries, four continents, three types of forests, and three types of fossil fuels, as shown in the map below, including both subnational- and national-level projects.

Results: What did we learn from the case studies?

For every hectare of forest land impacted by fossil extraction, ~60 tons of CO₂ are released due to deforestation, in addition to the emissions associated with burning the extracted carbon. On average, this is equal to ~11% of a project’s emissions (factoring in extraction, processing, transport, and combustion of fossil fuel).

While the carbon stored in biomass and soil is significant, it is consistently outweighed by the sheer volume of carbon locked within the fossil fuel reserves targeted for extraction.

Why FEBAC matters for climate strategy

The FEBAC tool provides a standardized, data-driven framework for assessing emissions from fossil fuel extraction in forested areas, helping advocacy groups and policymakers to build robust, evidence-based cases against specific fossil fuel concessions and infrastructure projects.

FEBAC adds a layer of nuance to forest conservation in countries where fossil fuel extraction occurs in forested regions. It demonstrates how fossil fuel extraction may drive highly localized deforestation, helping conceptually align conservation initiatives with broader decarbonization goals. When these two agendas align, decarbonization policies would yield immediate, measurable co-benefits for forest preservation.

Key insights and data realities

Applying the FEBAC tool across various global contexts has yielded several critical takeaways:

• Public Data Gaps: Uncertainty remains regarding open-source data on fossil fuel reserves, active production levels, project durations, and expansion plans. This complicates efforts to accurately project long-term environmental impacts.
• Geographical Variability: The ratio of forest carbon to fuel carbon is not uniform. Depending on biomass density and size of the reserve, the environmental “price tag” of a project varies substantially across regions.
• The “Carbon Bomb” Effect: The data confirms an intuitive but vital point—while clearing a forest is ecologically devastating, the primary climate threat of fossil fuel extraction projects in forests remains the fuel itself.

By integrating country-specific land-use and fossil fuel data, FEBAC contributes to a holistic view of the environmental cost of extraction.