Sources and notes for this blog post on the results of the Paris agreement.
Number of countries
187 parties have submitted INDCs. Source: 4DEC2015 UNFCCC.
196 parties are in the convention. Source: UNFCCC.
Temperature results from INDCs
Source: https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/
Sea level rise
Paris agreement reduces 2100 temperature one degree C. Source is https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/.
For the impact on sea level rise, we used Table 1, Levermann et al. 2013. http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13745.full.pdf. Total median sea level at 4°C minus the same at 3°C. 13.9-12.5 = 1.4.
Cumulative tons of CO2e kept out of the atmosphere
Calculations in C-ROADS (https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/) by CI staff.
“If the Paris pledges are fully implemented” is the “INDC Strict” scenario on the Scoreboard. It assumes no further progress post 2025-2030.
“Required to limit warming to 2°C” is the “Ratchet Success Scenario.” As documented in https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/ratchet-success-scenario/.
Annual percentage
Annual percentage reduction after 2030 to limit warming. Calculations in C-ROADS (https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/) by CI staff. As documented in the “Ratchet Success Scenario.” https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/ratchet-success-scenario/
Rate achieved 1978-1988 in France and Belgium
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in France and Belgium both declined at 3.7% on average between 1978-1988 following the oil crisis of the 1970s: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n1/full/nclimate1783.html#supplementary-information
Percent reductions from pledges
Brazil, EU, US. Calculations in C-ROADS (https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/) by CI staff. Built upon the INDC Strict Scenario at https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/.
Note that the US pledge extends only to 2025. This calculation assumes the US emissions remain at 2025 levels until 2030.
Per capita
US and China per capita emissions. Calculations in C-ROADS (https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/) by CI staff. Built upon the INDC Strict Scenario at https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/.
Percent of the global projected temperature decrease
Calculations in C-ROADS (https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/) by CI staff. Built upon the INDC Strict Scenario at https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/.
Contribution to warming calculated as a fraction of the total cumulative emissions of CO2e between the Reference Scenarios and the INDC Strict scenario. Note that the high number for China is strongly driven by strong expected growth in China emissions in RCP 8.5.
Multisolving
Percent of the avoided temperature impact from Multisolving. Impact is due to China, US, South Korea, and Mexico. More on Multisolving at https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/multisolving/.
Tuvalu and India Delegates
Source: http://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop21