27 Numbers for the Paris Agreement

December 12, 2015 by Shanna Edberg

By Andrew Jones, Ellie Johnston, John Sterman, Elizabeth Sawin, Lori Siegel, Jennifer Haskell, and Phil Rice

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Countries that submitted climate mitigation pledges for the Paris Agreement: 187

Countries in the UN climate convention: 196

The expected temperature change in 2100 if no action is taken: 4.5°C

If Paris pledges are fully implemented and no further progress is made: 3.5°C

The Paris Agreement goals: 1.5°C - 2°C

Approximate meters of long-term committed sea level rise avoided with implementation of the pledges in the Paris Agreement: 1

Billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions avoided between 2015 and 2030 if the Paris pledges are fully implemented: 113

Avoided between 2015 and 2100 if the Paris pledges are implemented and there is no further progress post 2030: 3,100

Avoided emissions required to limit warming to 2°C: 7,040

To 1.5°C: 7,610

Annual percentage emissions reduction rate 2030-2050 required to limit warming to 2.0°C if countries implement Paris pledges now and improve upon them in 2020: 3.5

Reduction rate required if countries wait until 2030 to make improvements: 4.8

Reduction rate achieved 1978-1988 in France and Belgium after the oil crisis: 3.7

For Brazil, percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2030, if its Paris pledge is fully implemented: 40

For EU: 40

For US: 14

U.S. 1990 per capita greenhouse gas emissions in tons per person per year: 24

In 2030, if the US pledge is implemented: 15

China’s, in 1990: 4

In 2030, if the China pledge is fully implemented: 12

Percent reduction in expected warming in 2100 compared to business as usual delivered by China’s Paris pledge alone: 37

Delivered by U.S. pledge alone: 17

Percent of cumulative global greenhouse gases 1870-2015 emitted by the U.S.: 18

Percent emitted by China: 13

Percent of the avoided temperature impact from the Paris Agreement that comes from countries engaged in “multisolving,” that is, emphasizing co-benefits such as health and jobs: 60

Number of citizens of Tuvalu per delegate in Paris: 243

Number for India: 7,000,000

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Sources and notes for the numbers: /tools/paris-agreement-by-the-numbers-sources-and-notes

Press inquiries:

Andrew Jones, apjones-at-climateinteractive.org

Ellie Johnston, ejohnston-at-climateinteractive.org, +1 336 202 8907.

John Sterman, MIT Sloan, jsterman-at-mit.edu, +1 339-223-0576

Climate Interactive is a not for profit organization based in the United States that creates tools, leads workshops, and runs analysis to help people see what works to address climate change and interconnected challenges.